There have been many articles in the oppositional press and on blogs attempting to figure out the reasons for Lukashenko’s outward attack on Russia. Some of those posts are expressions of sheer glee, others tend to be more cautious. I find myself in the camp of the latter, as nothing seems to indicate any positive turn for our economy and political climate even if Lukashenko and Putin get more vocal of their long-lasting feud rumored about since the first days Putin was elected. Sometimes, the relations between the two presidents overtly deteriorate, but they continue to play the brotherhood game, because they both need each other.

I agree that one of the most probable causes for Lukashenko’s blast of pugnacity was that he had found new important allies among the non-aligned nations. And he must be feeling more secure confronting the Kremlin’s push to accelerate the integration, alternatively threatening to impose higher gas prices.

Meanwhile, repressions against Malady Front (Young Front), a youth opposition group, continues with a new twist of absurdity. Paval Krasouski, one of the organization’s regional leaders, was arrested as a suspect in organizing a series of blasts in Vitsebsk in fall last year. As reported by TOL blogs, Krasouski was abroad on the day of blasts, and border stamps in his passport confirms it. The guy, who happens to be my old acquaintance, faces capital punishment. Now the regime has done many weird and absolutely lawless things. But I can’t believe they will frame an absolutely innocent person just like that. The world must not just watch from the distance.

The news for today is that Milinkevich announced he would take bull by its horns and initiate a new political movement, For Freedom, which was supposed to be created much earlier with backing of the Council of United Democratic Forces. Well, some might argue here that it had already been launched, but the political parties, as Milinkevich deems, had dawdled wasting time on internal campaigning and petty inner-circle power struggle.

At least publicly none of the party leaders voiced any criticism of the former oppositional candidate’s plan, and to the contrary they saluted his effort to unite nonpartisan activists. But it’s quite easy to guess what they really thought of this.

Will it work? We’ll see, but what saddens me is that again some political struggle triggers creation of a new structure. Our politics so often reminds some wicked clownery or childishness, i.e. struggle of personalities and not of ideologies. How many rightwing and leftwing groups do we have? Two or three for each and every one of us?

Only in this case, I really think Milinkevich could be right in his actions, as it might give some boost to the dormant political climate. For Freedom can become an alternative to the feeble (almost pathetic) parties lacking new members and ideas.

President Lukashenko has returned to TV screens. Just as I described in my previous post, his press conference was televised on all Belarusian channels, and the transcript was reprinted by all major state publications.

There were no new messages in his speech, but the media picked up on his threat to break off relations with Russia if it persists with the plan to raise the price of gas for Belarus in 2007. Lukashenko demanded that Russia should grant Belarus Russian internal cost of gas, but he refused to sell Gazprom 50% of Beltrasgaz stocks for 300 million dollars for that matter. According to Lukashenko, doubling of the cost of gas will cost 1 billion dollars to the Belarusian economy, and that is 1% of GDP; and this money can only be reimbursed through transit costs, military bases, deemed the president.

Lukashenko presaged that the integration processes would cease for a few years because of the forthcoming Russian presidential and parliamentary elections.

And yet showing his erratic nature, Lukashenko used his usual set of superlatives to describe his overwhelming allegiance to Russia when it comes to feuding with the West. So speaking to the Russia’s regional media, he reiterated his hackneyed thesis that Russia did not have other troops on the Western frontier except for the Belarusian military.

He said, “Just as it has always been in our history, if tanks move in from out there towards Russia, we will be dying here to protect Russia. And our nation must be ready for that. And now try to name any other country which would openly state that it’d be ready to die for Russia.”

If you hadn’t heard the abovesaid comments, maybe you’ll be interested, but to me, all this gibberish sounds insipid and trite. In a few days, he’ll tone down his bravado and go kiss some ass when Putin snaps his finger. I’ll be glad if somebody proves me wrong.

I pity those people in Belarus who have televisions with rabbit-ear antennas and neither satellite dishes nor basic Cable. I remember how all broadcast stations were canceling whatever they’d had on their schedules when Lukashenko addressed the nation or his government in a public meeting. He openly humiliated officials, members of local governments many of whom were much older than him. And they never fired back, sat like juvenile criminals – eyes down, scarcely breathing, afraid to budge. All this nonsense looked like a televised freak show, staged with one purpose – to show that the president cared for his people and allowed no spin among his subordinates.

Watching him speak, what I rarely did, I must confess I questioned his sanity. Can an intelligent human being behave in such a disreputable way? Can I recall any living president of any country to engage oneself in a three ring circus like this? Probably not.

Well, it’s not just me guessing at Lukashenko’s condition, but Anatoly Lebedko, the United Civil Party Chairman, has come forth questioning the incumbent’s ability to run the country and filed a query to the Council of Ministers. In his statement, Lebedko mentioned some of recent Lukashenko’s whimsies. For example, in a few interviews, Lukashenko said that around 95% of the electorate voted for him in the last election, which contradicted even the official results. He also blabbed that 99% of young people supported him. He also said that he was on a special mission in Havana and spoke on behalf not only of his country but of entire Europe. These and other facts led Lebedko to doubt Lukashenko’s ability to adequately comprehend what goes on around him and his ability to run the country. There are some other funny examples Lebedko offered. Read the entire article (in Russian).

Well, yeah, there you go. Funny to read, but oh, so true. Lukashenko’s health is a major concern. But on the other hand, I am also worried how things are going in the democratic sector. Seems like the divide between some political forces has touched the ground and is more visible than ever. The question is almost rhetorical - why did four political parties – the United Civic Party, Social Democrats ‘Hramada,’ Communists, and Labor Party – chose to distant themselves from the Belarusian Popular Front and, I assume, Milinkevich? It seems to me that his influence on the democratic camp is being tarnished, and I strongly doubt how the coalition can be preserved in its current state. Mini-coalitions which are being formed for the forth-coming local elections lack some feasible system of coordinates. The card house is as weak as it gets without a proper strategy, or maybe it’s about time when the spirit of the masses is “F**k the strategy! The ship is sinking anyway. We’ll go the other way.” But what is that other way?

I believe that the cleverest thing the democratic forces can do when and if they come to power is to invite the topnotch economists – like Solidarity did when they got Lipton and Sachs on the board, and like Saakashvili is doing now, having gotten Mart Laar to be his economic advisor. That is surely a very clever move.

One of the reasons why the Belarusian opposition fails is because they listen but fail to hear what intellectuals say. Had they taken the analysts’ advice more seriously, maybe we would’ve had somebody else running the country these days.

A Russian born Ukrainian novelist, Andrey Kurkov, has written an article about Alexander Lukashenko for the British journal, New Statesman. From this rather concise look at the Belarusian ruler, readers can carry out a few interesting and even controversial points.

The author writes:

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Belarus is that it doesn’t wish to be a state at all. The dream of most Belarussians is to be united with Russia. No other ex-Soviet republic so bemoans the break-up of the USSR. This can be explained by the essentially patriarchal attitude of the country’s citizens and the very high percentage of pensioners - higher than in any other former Soviet country. Add to this the fact that around 20 per cent of the adult population has only primary education, and it is possible to understand why Belarussians are so fond of their “Man of the People” president, Alexander Lukashenko.

Well, to start with, I hate to repeat it again and again, but it is dated to call the inhabitants of Belarus Belarussians. The New Statesman copy editors could’ve googled for different spellings of the word. Maybe they would be surprised to learn that most English-language sources have long switched to the term “Belarusian,” which is grammatically correct as it derives from the name of our country. That is Belarus and not Belarussia.

Contentwise I would argue with the notion that the dream of most Belarusians is to be united with our Eastern neighbor. Check IISEPS data. Well, to make it easier, here’s a table I’ve copy&pasted from their web site. The question was – If a referendum on Russia-Belarus integration is held, how would you vote?

If you say, there are a lot of folks who are pro-integration, I’ll agree with that. But hell no, this is not a majority. And what is even more important, the number of those who consider incorporation of Belarus into Russia as positive is smaller than of its opponents. Check the data here.

Well, heck… I guess I need to express my doubt that “around 20 per cent of the adult population has only primary education.” I tend to think this figure is lower, as the literacy rates according to the stats I have seen are pretty darn high.

I cannot deny the fact that our compatriots were dumb enough to elect such a leader. To make it even worse, now as he ripped us off our constitutional right to elect a government in a fair election, we can hardly do anything about it no matter how high or low the level of education was in Belarus. Well, sure, we can do something. And the amount of the bad publicity our regime receives is a good thing. It helps. The New Statesman ranked Lukashenko among the world’ top 10 worst dictators. I concur. Luka has well deserved that stigma. 12 years of authoritarian rule and counting.

And it’s a shame Belarus figures in the international media almost exclusively courtesy of the regime’s misdoings. As Kurkov points out, “If it were not for the character of its president, few people beyond the borders of the old USSR would be aware of the existence of Belarus.” And that is sad.

Grotesquery of the Belarusian regime has crossed any conceivable boundaries. The closed trial of Partnership leaders has ended with a shameful verdict locking up Mikola Astrejka for two years, Cimoch Dranchuk for one year, Enira Branickaja and Alaksandar Shalajka for six months.
The most horrible thing here is that these people are absolutely innocent. They have been sentenced for running an unregistered organization. Actually, they had tried to register Partnership multiple times, but received a no go response from the ministry. And when they attempted to conduct a congress to establish the organization and reapply for registration, the get-together was dispersed and the leaders got arrested. Yet, Partnership continued to conduct its activities regardless the never-ending problems with the regime which got tremendously nervous about the independent pall watchers.
So when the presidential campaign was going in full pelt, the authorities attacked isolating the Partnership leadership, paralyzing the work of the organization. And here came the trial – covertly and lawlessly judging the young guys for their noble mission to monitor the elections.
Now they are in jail, and our solidarity is needed. Cimoch Drancuk has a birthday today. He turned 25. It is horrible for anyone to celebrate a birthday in such a way. I think it is vital for him and other political prisoners to know that the world is not just watching. The regime is going to get pounded very severely for this bestial act of brutality. I am sure that the executors will be punished soon. And freedom will shine on not only them – but on all our tortured land.

Contrary to what I had thought, Yushchenko announced tonight that he would propose Yanukovich’s candidacy for the prime minister’s post. I listened to his emotional speech, and my heart sank as he spoke.
Theoretically, he will try to unite the nation and reconcile the east-west divide which had put the Ukrainian parliamentarians, if not the entire nation, to a standstill. But will it work? Does it mean that the Orange Revolution is officially over and can be declared a failure? But most importantly, how bad will it play along the Belarusian regime? And will our opposition draw some important conclusions from the Ukrainian dilemma? If Yanukovich and Yushchenko had guts to become allies, shouldn’t Milinkevich and Kozulin have done the same? Or maybe fragile unities, like the Orange one, eventually lead to disintegration and political failure, and Belarusian opposition leaders should be cautious whom they befriend. The discussion is open.

Today Yushchenko may dissolve the parliament. He announced that the round table talks did not yield a result – Universal of National Unity was not signed. The Ukrainian president is going to address the nation later in the afternoon.
Meanwhile, Wolny, a Belarusian American blogger, found a striking similarity between Tymoshenko and Mary J. Blige. Seems like she - Yula- will have a second chance to become a Ukrainian prime minister.

AC is on, but I slightly feel the heat penetrating through the half-opened window. It is extremely hot on the East Coast now, but definitely this heat is nothing like the pressure Partnership leaders must be feeling now, as the closed trial continues.
The news came that the prosecutor demanded a three-year prison term for Mikola Astrejka and two years for Enira Branickaja, Alaksandr Shalajka, and Cimoch Dranchuk.
Covertness of the trial is appalling. Not even relatives of the defendants are let in.
Charter97.org published a selection of pictures. Two of them caught a glimpse of Enira and Cimoch.