Andrei Khrapavitski: Belarusian American Blog

Seems like this blog has gradually taken form of a rather critical one as it comes to analysis of the Belarusian political reality. And it’s not just the current political regime that I find some inner urge to grumble about. There are many problems in the opposition camp, as well. Take, for instance, a new-born right-wing coalition that united For Freedom Movement of Alaksandr Milinkevich, BPF Party, the Belarusian Christian Democracy and some others.

The coalition had been nameless until today. Finally, the leaders convened and decided that it would be called a Belarusian pro-Independence Block.

Come on, guys! Belarus is already an independent state. Is there anyone who seriously believes that Lukashenka is about to give up his power and sell out our independence? How are you going to approach voters with such an unclear title? “Independent from what?” – many a voter would wonder when he or she hears the title of your block. And one more thing. Had you consulted PR experts, political think tanks? Gee, had you consulted your own activists before you got to choose that name? Was there any brainstorming involved? Hardly…

It’s been an unforgettable summer. On a personal note, I have changed my marital status. Yep, not single any more. Our honeymoon was the best journey I’ve ever been to. We traveled Germany, Austria, Luxembourg, France, and Netherlands. Made new friends, swam in the Northern Sea, which turned out to be pretty warm if compared with the Baltic… But the summer is over. It means back to the usual stuff - reporting, policy analyses, research, what have you…

Today is the day when the Belarusian Popular Front is holding its convention. BPF is the oldest and arguably the largest opposition party in the country. The big question of the day was who would become the new leader of the party as the incumbent chairman Liavon Barsceuski had refused to run for reelection. The two candidates were Viktar Ivashkevich and Aliaksiei Yanukevich. The former, BPF old-timer, backed by both Barsceuski and Viacorka, presented himself as a man of action. His strategy would be to secure Barsceuski as the sole candidate of the United Democratic Forces and insist on democratization of the electoral laws. His rival, Yanukevich is of the Front younger generation. Although not a vocal opponent of the old BPF elite, he promised to shake up somewhat stagnant party. Yanukevich offered to withdraw from political unions compromising the party principles but he suggested that a new coalition of rightwing forces should be created.

At least, from my encounters with regional BPF activists, I sensed that Yanukevich was an acceptable choice for many unsatisfied with the old party bosses while Ivashkevich was seen as one of the old tribe.
As the convention neared, seems like it was becoming clear that Ivashkevich was going to lose. The party elite sensed it, too, so when the day X came I guess they tried to play a Barsceuski card again, i.e., to persuade him to run for reelection. Remember how Barsceuski surfaced as a compromise figure when Viacorka and Michalevich clashed at the previous convention without a clear winner. So guess what, this time around, Ivashkevich withdrew making way for Barsceuski to reclaim the throne. His initial refusal to run for reelection disappeared somewhere. He accepted the offer saying that he would spend most of his time preparing for the presidential elections while he would commit majority of administrative functions to his deputy Ivashkevich.

The party members didn’t buy it. Yanukevich came out as a clear winner. As I am writing this, the convention continues. Yanukevich’s chairmanship sounds like a fresh anchor face for BPF, but will it really mean fresh ideas and decisive actions? Time for observation and reflection is necessary.

Another interesting news from the convention is that Ales Michalevic officially announced that he was planning to run for the presidential office. Michalevic is a young politician who unsuccessfully ran for BPF leadership at the previous convention and was ousted from the party by Barseuski people later on. For a while he was absent from national news. Will his effort to return to big politics be successful?

Pastavy is a very nice town in northwestern Belarus. Here’s my photo report from its 600th anniversary. The townsfolk celebrated for three days
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Emanuel Zeltser is free. The U.S. lawyer was released from a Mogilev prison soon after the Belarusian president granted him an amnesty. The American citizen had been held in a prison on far-fetched charges of “using false official documents” and “attempted economic espionage.” His case was heard in a closed judicial proceeding. The U.S. Embassy in Minsk criticized the proceedings, noting that it was denied the opportunity to observe the trial. The State Department repeatedly called for Mr. Zeltser’s release on humanitarian grounds.

The Belarusian regime resisted. It resisted until normalization of relations with the West has become a major factor to save the tormented Belarusian economy battered by the crisis and tensions with Russia. Shamefully, Zeltser’s incarceration was sort of a joker card the Belarusian president kept in his pocket knowing he can use it when necessary. The situation required, so he used it. I am wondering how different this is from what terrorists do when they kidnap Americans or Europeans for ransom. Zeltser case is just another sad indication that the Belarusian court system serves political needs of the ruler.

Yet, I agree with Melyantsov (Belarusian political expert, BISS) that the United States should use the release of Zeltser as a starting point to normalize relations with Minsk. The more Lukashenko’s government opens up to the West, the sooner it crumbles.

Ever since the 2006 presidential campaign, the biggest Belarusian independent newspaper Narodnaya Volya has been cold, even inimical towards Milinkevich. But now the newspaper’s bias against this politician has gone a bit too far.

Last week, Narodnaya Volya published an article by Mikhail Podolyak titled “Bleacher M.” In this opus, Milinkevich was accused of being part of a secret plot between him, Lukashenka, and some European political forces. Podolyak claimed there was a European plan “Solana/Lukashenka.” According to this plan, Milinkevich would be given a post inside the Belarusian government and Lukashenka would get another legitimized presidential term. In their turn, Europeans would win favorable conditions for business in Belarus.

Podolyak unveiled that, during the next presidential elections, Milinkevich would become a “technical” candidate, supported by Europe, he would get some 20-25% votes and would be offered a post of the vice president in the next Lukashenka’s cabinet. The latter would most certainly win the vote with triumph, wrote Podolyak. (more…)

The pendulum has swung. The period of temporal calmness couldn’t last long. In fact, it had been unwise to trust the longevity of Belarus’s political liberalization. The new year has brought a worrisome trend of new politically motivated arrests, repressions against the opposition activists and attacks on the freedom of speech. (more…)

Yesterday Maskouski District Court of Brest ruled that a double issue ##7-8, 2008 of a Belarusian intellectual journal ARCHE contained extremist materials and thus was subject to confiscation and destruction. Just a week back, I visited a presentation of Aleh Latyszonak’s book “The Soldiers of the Belarusian People’s Republic “where I bought this yet-untabooed issue. Who would’ve thought, now I am a proud owner of an extremist magazine… So let me walk you through the stuff that the Belarusian court found extreme and inappropriate for the Belarusian readers to see.

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Yesterday Malady Front (Young Front) conducted its annual St. Valentine’s Day peaceful rally. The action was brutally dispersed by the Belarusian OMON (special task force). Seems like they do not feed into the idea of liberalization too much. Young opposition activists were battered and forced out of Yakub Kolas Square. Arrests were not made. However, some guys including Young Front leader Zmicier Dashkevich suffered serious beating. See the video by nn.by below.

Of all the lapses and fallacies of the soviet-styled Belarusian system, one of the most disgusting is the mandatory military service. All Belarusian men are obliged to serve in the army unless they have some good reasons not to do so. One such reason exempting from the military service is poor health. Each conscript has to go through a series of medical checks before he or she is approved to be a soldier. Well, it is so, of course, unless you are an opposition activist and the authorities want you blocked away from your “socially harmful” activities. (more…)

It was an interesting year… The iceberg of the Belarusian authoritarianism has begun melting. The sunbeams of “liberalization” started caressing the surface of the Belarusian economy. The global economic crisis, the uneven, wavering spirit of Belarus-Russia relations, Russia-Georgia War – all these events got Lukashenko and his team thinking how to keep in control and not let the ship of the “Belarusian stability” sink in the muddy waters of the current uncertainty.

It is quite obvious the government is now seeking ways to make certain concessions to indulge the West. The govt released the political prisoners, allowed two independent newspapers to return to the state-run system of distribution, registered For Freedom Movement (of Milinkevich)… But the Belarusian regime makes a very well-thought-out tweaks to the political landscape, not real changes. The tweaks are not systemic and thus safe for the government.

The opposition is still kept away from the real political process; i.e., our parliament is 100% opposition-free. The laws are still repressive, the govt can cancel all these temporary liberties at any point.

In about two years, we will have presidential election. Traditionally, the pre-campaign period in Belarus is the time when the government cleanses the political field of the possible threats. 2008 is still way too early for any screw-tightening. At this point, Lukashenka might be feeling quite secure, in other words, skeptical of his opponents’ powers. Or he badly needs to keep socio-economical stability in the society nurtured by his own stability mantra.

I do hope this liberalization pattern continues in the following year. I do hope.

Happy New Year to you all!