Andrei Khrapavitski: Belarusian Presidential Election 2010 Blog

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Hello, world! Almost feels like the first post, as I was absent from this blog for ages. Alas, I have little time for blogging these days. However, I do hope to return here once in a while to express my thoughts on important matters concerning Belarus. The last year in my home country could be summed up with one word “crisis.” It was the year of unprecedented weakness of Lukashenka. It was the year of awakening for many people who had previously kept silent . It was the year when many of us hoped the regime would fall by the end of the year.

It’s 2012, and Lukashenka is still in power. According to the study by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, Lukashenka’s rating has fallen to appalling 24,9 percent. In fact, 44,6 percent would support an alternative candidate if the presidential election were held now. Just 21,7 percent would vote for the incumbent. Alas, presidential elections are nowhere near.

The next election to be held is parliamentary. The opposition is divided, as always, whether to participate or boycott the race. The most stupid thing that can, and most probably will, happen is that some opposition structures would choose one thing, while other factions would choose something else. Again there will be different approaches, conflicting interests and a very small impact as a result.

For about two weeks, Belarusian segment of the Internet went nuts over Nekliaev’s revelation that he had brutally killed a cat. During an online Q&A conference, an aspiring presidential candidate was asked whether an episode of a brutal murder of a cat, described in his book “Armaggedon. Dramatic Poem,” was real.

Here’s a direct quotation from the book:

I was ten when I caught and killed a cat. She lived in a barn, homeless. I killed her by holding her hind legs and hitting her against a concrete column. Swinging her to and fro, I was hitting the feline body against the concrete. The cat already had no head, but I was still hitting.

And here’s what Nekliaev said during the conference:

It’s a real fact. Many of the childhood memories are enigma. For example, fits of childish brutality… I had one of those just once, but still I had it. How, why? I couldn’t explain it even to myself. That is why I tried to analyze it in a dramatic poem.

The effect was explosive. Belarusian Greens called for removal of Nekliaev from the race. The Belarusian blogging community blasted with zillions of posts and comments. It’s not surprising this childish act of brutality became probably the most widely discussed politically-related topic on the Belarusian Internet.

Internet art: By voting for Nekliaev, you will kill a kitten

Surprisingly, it even provoked the candidate’s aides and Nekliaev himself to respond to all this craziness. Nekliaev even did photoshoots with his cat Basia. But I guess the most amusing clumsy effort to hush down the fuss was when Nekliaev signed a peace memorandum with cat Barsik.

I don’t know what’s gonna be the result of all this madness, but it’s fun to watch.

Last week Milinkevich officially announced that he would not run for president this time around. However, he would actively support pro-Belarusian candidates. He did not reveal any specific names, but it is quite clear he will support either Ryhor Kastusiou, Ales Michalevic or Jury Hlushakou. I think Kastusiou has more chances to collect the necessary 100,000 signatures since he has support of the Belarusian Popular Front, or rather what is left of it after splits and disagreements.

It is sad to see Milinkevich going AWOL, but I fully understand this move. The opposition is much more divided now than in 2006. The leaders of various opposition factions, which had supported Milinkevich in 2006, did everything they could to undermine his leadership position after the loss. Milinkevich had also put forward demands for changes to electoral code. Otherwise, he warned, participating in the election would be like being a statist in someone else’s game. The electoral code was left practically unchanged. The election can be as easily stolen as the previous ones. One more serious factor which might have influenced his decision is the lack of financial support for this election campaign from donors. The opposition is practically penniless, and it can only blame itself for this situation since it is somewhat of a punishment for being so divided.

Anyway, I am sad about Milinkevich’s nonparticipation because he crafted his speaking skills and generally improved as a politician over the past years. Comparing Milinkevich 2006 with Milinkevich 2010, he today looks more professional and wise. Maybe it was his political wisdom that told him to keep out of the flame this time. Alas, it leaves me guessing who to vote for when I come to the voting booth. At this early stage of the campaign, I am quite clueless.

A new political season has started with an unprecedented number of oppositional politicians willing to participate in the election. Some of them are really aiming to collect 100,000 signatures necessary to be eligible to run for president; others are just splashing the water. To the best of my knowledge, very few of them are actually capable of collecting the necessary number.

Resource wise, just one candidate stands out as the most probable contender to the throne in the Belarusian kingdom. After months and months of ambiguous and shady replies to questions about his presidential ambitions, this oppositional frontrunner has finally revealed he would run for president. As if we didn’t know it . The candidate I am talking about is Vladimir Nekliaev. Why is he the one? Well, I don’t know. Frankly. All I know about him is that he’s a poet whose poetry is not of my taste. But for some reason, this man is making the biggest waves in the Belarusian pond.

Last year Nekliaev has come forward as the initiator of a rather vocal campaign “Tell the Truth,” which is allegedly financed by some rich folks in Russia feeling sympathetic toward Belarus. In contrast to the rest of the Belarusian opposition, it really feels like Nekliaev does have resources and manpower to get through the initial stages of the race and get the registration certificate, of course, unless Lukashenka freaks out and takes him down (figuratively or literarily).

However, I do have a lot of skepticism about his chances to win. It will be damn hard to rally enough opposition activists behind him due to the shadiness of his campaign background. He badly lacks professional image-makers since his gesticulation and manners in which he replies to serious questions are appalling (just watch the video below). And man, who on earth votes for a poet? Not lawyer or economist, but poet. He’s written lyrics for songs, nothing much else. Should Lukashenka be afraid of him? I don’t think so.

During the previous Belarusian presidential elections, I was live-blogging in English, reporting on any political developments which I thought were of value. The new elections will be held on December 19th, 2010. This date means one thing - authorities don’t even consider having a runoff. Who would participate in the second round on January 2? Come on…

I promise to write once in a while about the upcoming election, too. However, I wouldn’t expect much from it, regardless of all the Russian media hype. Check back to learn why.

The local election season ended with no visible impact on the Belarusian politics. The official turnout was high just as usual, but from what I can gather neither Belarusian opposition activists nor the society in general paid much attention to this campaign. I find it unfortunate since local election is a very good way to reach out to local electorates, an apt opportunity to prepare ground for the upcoming presidential race. The opportunity was mostly lost.

I am now completing my research into the role of independent regional online media in the coverage of this election. I have been analyzing statistical data from an array of regional online media outlets to see how the election was covered, how active politicians turned out to be online, and how Internet users responded to election coverage. As a sneak preview, I can say that the general interest of Internet audiences in local elections was very low. Elections-related articles were rarely among the most popular pages on any of the sites subjected to analysis. And I did analyze quite a bunch of them.

As part of my academic work for the Institute of Political Studies “Political Sphere” on one part and my studies at EHU on the other, I am writing a research paper on the role of the regional online media in the coverage of the current local election in Belarus.

Damn it! I must say this election campaign sucks big time. In most constituencies, there’s just one candidate running (of course, the one bolstered by the state). Many regional opposition politicians have decided to ignore the campaign as nonessential; few have chosen to run. I am still waiting for the data to see how this election will affect the statistics of local online media and also how much the media will cover the election, but I must say it’s hard for the media to produce some significant gains in numbers or even to spread the word about the election, given the interest in the election is so low both among the local politicians and the populace. Heh, even OSCE seems to have very little interest in it.

I’d compare this election to the soviet times. Yes, then we also had “elections.” But the essence was quite similar to what we are having now.

In a unanimous vote, the Belarusian Parliament has amended the Belarusian electoral law, mollifying some questionable parts, removing others, making it more palatable for international observers. Still far from ideal, it is yet unclear whether this change will be any helpful to the Belarusian opposition during the forthcoming local elections and a subsequent battle for the presidential post? (more…)

Seems like this blog has gradually taken form of a rather critical one as it comes to analysis of the Belarusian political reality. And it’s not just the current political regime that I find some inner urge to grumble about. There are many problems in the opposition camp, as well. Take, for instance, a new-born right-wing coalition that united For Freedom Movement of Alaksandr Milinkevich, BPF Party, the Belarusian Christian Democracy and some others.

The coalition had been nameless until today. Finally, the leaders convened and decided that it would be called a Belarusian pro-Independence Block.

Come on, guys! Belarus is already an independent state. Is there anyone who seriously believes that Lukashenka is about to give up his power and sell out our independence? How are you going to approach voters with such an unclear title? “Independent from what?” – many a voter would wonder when he or she hears the title of your block. And one more thing. Had you consulted PR experts, political think tanks? Gee, had you consulted your own activists before you got to choose that name? Was there any brainstorming involved? Hardly…