The pendulum has swung. The period of temporal calmness couldn’t last long. In fact, it had been unwise to trust the longevity of Belarus’s political liberalization. The new year has brought a worrisome trend of new politically motivated arrests, repressions against the opposition activists and attacks on the freedom of speech.
I agree with Dzyanis Melyantsov that the economic liberalization is unavoidable as it is the only way for the Belarusian regime to survive the economic downturn. But the political liberalization of 2008, I think, is, or rather was, a makeshift set-up to mend some bridges on the Western front.
With the presidential election of 2011 looming in the distance, Lukashenka’s apparatus will be tempted to employ the usual techniques. And it does so already.
Traveling lately across the northwestern fringe of Belarus, I saw nothing but apathy about the politics. The folks in the country are preoccupied with their daily routine, breadwinning, families. Yes, most of the people I saw were so called Creoles (the electorate of Lukashenka as denoted by Grigory Ioffe), but I saw similar apathy among the Nativists and Muscovite liberals alike (again, the terms employed by G. Ioffe).
In contrast to the peripheral tranquility, Minsk was recently a place to be to see the birth of a new political force. The Constituent Assembly of the Belarusian Christian Democratic Party (BChD) convened in the capital city. Even if you followed the buzz about the creation of this new rightwing party in Belarus, I guess you might be unaware that the registration of this wannabe party is still a big question. According to the Belarusian law, a party needs 1,000 member signatures to apply for the official registration. As far as I know from the insider sources, just a few days before the convention, the BChD was short of the required signatures. I guess, by now, they have gathered the necessary number, but the new perspective party is still to grow some muscles and gain some weight before it is considered a real force. To be fair, all Belarusian parties are quite miniscule in size.
Similarly to the formation of For Freedom Movement of Milinkevich, the Belarusian Christian Democracy was not just appealing to nonpartisans, it lured a number of members from other political forces. Some old players felt tired of the Belarusian stagnant partisanry, others were lured by the personal charisma of Paval Sieviaryniec. Many chose to join ranks of this party for its traditionalist Christian ideals (think about Bill O’Reilly and Rush Limbaugh).
I don’t feel like lampooning the new party of Paval Sieviaryniec. I have known him personally for quite a while, many of my friends have joined the BChD. Sieviaryniec is charismatic, devout believer. He could have been a great televangelist, had he not chosen to become a politician. He is also a great author whose books are thought-provoking and entertaining. However, his stance is somewhat troubling; his views are too reminiscent of Christian fundamentalism, too intertwined with religious rhetoric. He is an outspoken traditionalist culture warrior, waging his war against the liberal decadence. On many issues, I agree to disagree with him. Not being against his personal religiosity, I think that his prolific usage of religious rhetoric in public turns many Belarusians against him. According to some data I have seen, Belarus is one of the least religious countries in Europe. Well, maybe that is why Sieviaryniec is undertaking this religious-political crusade. To Christianize Belarusians. Will he succeed? I doubt that.
