The big news of the past few weeks was the return of two Belarusian independent newspapers to the state-run system of distribution (newsstands and subscription catalogs). The Belarusian regime, pressured by the West, disagreements with Kremlin, and the grim economic data, has made a half-step towards what we might consider liberalization. But how far is the Belarusian regime ready to let in, and how determined is the West to keep the pressure on?

Until recently, nearly all Belarusian independent newspapers daring to touch political topics had been deprived of a possibility to be distributed through a state-controlled network of newsstands. Belarusians had not had a possibility to subscribe to independent newspapers through the state monopoly distributor Belposhta.

About three weeks ago, the state ruled to allow two newspapers – Nasha Niva and Narodnaya Volya – to return to the state-run distribution system. The editors say that the regime did not ask for anything in return. There were no political demands. However, the contracts the editors signed with the state monopolies Belposhta, Belsayuzpechat left the editors unsure of the longevity of this meltdown. The contracts can be canceled at any point; monopolies also rip off two newspapers economically. The distribution terms are absolutely unfair if compared to the terms according to which these companies distribute the state-run press.

It is also important to ask the authorities why they ushered in just two newspapers. How about the rest? How about the regional independent newspapers which were stronger and more popular than the state-run local newspapers? Letting in just two and filtering others is a vivid example of the Belarusian authoritarianism – the president ordered, the bureaucrats fulfilled. Forget about the rule of law, separation of powers, checks and balances… The decision-making is unilateral, one-sided, uncontrolled and unquestioned.

Of course, it is great this half-step was made. I am very glad for my colleagues. However, I think it is important to keep the pressure on the Belarusian government so as to push it to make further steps forward. Let us not forget the repressive media law we have in Belarus. Let us not forget it was even toughened recently. The Internet media are gonna be in trouble after the new repressive amendments take effect this January.

I also think that sticks-only politics do not work here. The West – the European Union in particular – needs to offer a good balance of sticks and carrots. I guess there must have been quite a bunch of sticks the past few years. Maybe it’s right time to offer Lukashenka some fresh and tasty carrots. However, they need to be offered at the right moments, no sooner, no later.

For instance, I think the European Union messed it up a little when Brussels repealed visa restrictions for the Belarusian government officials. This demonstrative step should have been made at some other point in time. Visa restrictions should have been dropped soon after some positive action (for instance, Kozulin release), not after something as negative as another fraudulent election campaign in Belarus.

Anyway, it is good to see that some carrots are offered. It is much better politics than scaring a wolf to the corner. A cornered beast might begin biting everyone around it. You can’t tame a wolf without feeding it.