Andrei Khrapavitski: Belarusian Presidential Election 2010 Blog

It was an interesting year… The iceberg of the Belarusian authoritarianism has begun melting. The sunbeams of “liberalization” started caressing the surface of the Belarusian economy. The global economic crisis, the uneven, wavering spirit of Belarus-Russia relations, Russia-Georgia War – all these events got Lukashenko and his team thinking how to keep in control and not let the ship of the “Belarusian stability” sink in the muddy waters of the current uncertainty.

It is quite obvious the government is now seeking ways to make certain concessions to indulge the West. The govt released the political prisoners, allowed two independent newspapers to return to the state-run system of distribution, registered For Freedom Movement (of Milinkevich)… But the Belarusian regime makes a very well-thought-out tweaks to the political landscape, not real changes. The tweaks are not systemic and thus safe for the government.

The opposition is still kept away from the real political process; i.e., our parliament is 100% opposition-free. The laws are still repressive, the govt can cancel all these temporary liberties at any point.

In about two years, we will have presidential election. Traditionally, the pre-campaign period in Belarus is the time when the government cleanses the political field of the possible threats. 2008 is still way too early for any screw-tightening. At this point, Lukashenka might be feeling quite secure, in other words, skeptical of his opponents’ powers. Or he badly needs to keep socio-economical stability in the society nurtured by his own stability mantra.

I do hope this liberalization pattern continues in the following year. I do hope.

Happy New Year to you all!

December 21, 2o08, the Central Committee of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada) met for its regular sitting. The honorable chairman of the party Alaksandr Kazulin held a speech at the gathering. The announcement he made might have sounded somewhat disheartening to some party members, others greeted this as good news. Kazulin said that he was canceling his membership in the Social Democratic Party and was planning to begin regional trips across the country (I guess similar to what Milinkevich had been doing over the past couple of years.

Interestingly, Alaksei Karol and Uladzimir Nisciuk also said they would be leaving the party. If it is not another indication of the demise in the Belarusian party politics, I don’t know what is.

I am now working on a quantitative research paper analyzing the level of web activism by the candidates in the 2008 Belarusian Parliamentarian election. No surprises here. If you envision “Internet revolution” in Belarus, you’ll need to wait a bit longer. The digital divide is still too wide for it to happen. (more…)

It is scary to read Paul Krugman, the winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics…

I believe not only that we’re living in a new era of depression economics, but also that John Maynard Keynes—the economist who made sense of the Great Depression—is now more relevant than ever. Keynes concluded his masterwork, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, with a famous disquisition on the importance of economic ideas: “Soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.”

Why scary? Because I doubt that Krugman’s advice will be followed to full extent. In this intertwined global market, we all depend on one another, a unilateral problem solving does not work here. I also have a sense that “the Republican (Conservative) Way” of handling the economy is becoming obsolete these days. It will probably come back (transformed and rethought), but not quite soon.

No matter where we are all in this together.

Entrepreneurs Keep Apolitical

Today Belarusian entrepreneurs protested in Minsk. A peaceful meeting and a demonstration involved around 2,000-3,000 people. The Belarusian battered business owners protested against the tough legal conditions imposed on them by the government. After January 1, 2009, the new regulations take affect. According to the new rules, each product an entrepreneur buys (abroad) needs to have official documents, certificates, documentation, custom clearance, etc. In addition, a private entrepreneur is no longer allowed to hire employees other than close relatives. Otherwise, the business owner is obliged to register a privately owned enterprise and face a whole bunch of additional taxes and legal hurdles. (more…)

The big news of the past few weeks was the return of two Belarusian independent newspapers to the state-run system of distribution (newsstands and subscription catalogs). The Belarusian regime, pressured by the West, disagreements with Kremlin, and the grim economic data, has made a half-step towards what we might consider liberalization. But how far is the Belarusian regime ready to let in, and how determined is the West to keep the pressure on? (more…)