There have been many articles in the oppositional press and on blogs attempting to figure out the reasons for Lukashenko’s outward attack on Russia. Some of those posts are expressions of sheer glee, others tend to be more cautious. I find myself in the camp of the latter, as nothing seems to indicate any positive turn for our economy and political climate even if Lukashenko and Putin get more vocal of their long-lasting feud rumored about since the first days Putin was elected. Sometimes, the relations between the two presidents overtly deteriorate, but they continue to play the brotherhood game, because they both need each other.

I agree that one of the most probable causes for Lukashenko’s blast of pugnacity was that he had found new important allies among the non-aligned nations. And he must be feeling more secure confronting the Kremlin’s push to accelerate the integration, alternatively threatening to impose higher gas prices.

Meanwhile, repressions against Malady Front (Young Front), a youth opposition group, continues with a new twist of absurdity. Paval Krasouski, one of the organization’s regional leaders, was arrested as a suspect in organizing a series of blasts in Vitsebsk in fall last year. As reported by TOL blogs, Krasouski was abroad on the day of blasts, and border stamps in his passport confirms it. The guy, who happens to be my old acquaintance, faces capital punishment. Now the regime has done many weird and absolutely lawless things. But I can’t believe they will frame an absolutely innocent person just like that. The world must not just watch from the distance.