A Belarusian American Wonly has posted up this interesting analysis of Lukashenka’s absence on TV screens. Indeed, what’s up with “the daddy?”

Entries about Lukashenka missing on TV appeared in LiveJournal over the week-end. At first, people were joking but in the beginning of the week situation has worsened. Announcement that inauguration had been postponed without a certain date came on Tuesday. Let’s take a look at the facts:

Sunday, March 19:
- Lukashenka votes and shows up in public. Everybody notices too much make-up on his face.

Monday, March 20:
- Lukashenka participates in a press-conference on the results of the elections at the Central Elections Committee.
- Putin congratulates Lukashenka on winning the elections.

Tuesday, March 21:
- Some foreign journalist announces that Lukashenka had promised not to destroy the tent city.
- Leaders of third-world countries congratulate Lukashenka on winning the elections.

Wednesday, March 23:
- Deputy Minister of internal affairs states that the tent city will not be destroyed by force.

Early morning Friday, March 24:
- Riot police suddenly and more or less violently destroy the tent city.

Saturday, March 25:
- Peaceful action of protest is violently dispersed in Minsk with participation of the internal army (similar to National Guard).
- People start wondering about Lukashenka’s whereabouts.

Monday, March 27:
- Many mass media publish articles talking about Lukashenka’s disappearance.

Tuesday, March 28:
- A message travels in ICQ messaging network claiming that Lukashenka has some heart issues and his son Viktar is governing the country and giving the brutal orders.
- BT (national television) shows Lukashenka at some meeting where he orders to take down his portraits off walls and put some small photograph on desks instead. Lukashenka also announces a new de-bureaucratization program and does not mention last week’s events in detail. He only says that the police have done a good job. Those who had seen the news report noticed that it was too short and Lukashenka obviously had too much make-up on.

Rumors about president’s bad health had been around for a while. He has been using make-up for about a year. What exactly had happened to him naturally was not mentioned anywhere. There are three major versions of Lukashenka’s disappearance:
- heavy drinking
- heart problems (possible stroke)
- nervous breakdown
All three versions perfectly fit the fact that the inauguration had been postponed for just a few weeks since they hope that Lukashenka will be better by then. However, a question remains whether he will be able to fulfill his duties. Article 89 of Belarusian Constitution says that if a president is incapable of fulfilling his duties the prime-minister should take over, but Sidorski has already resigned…

There also had been a rumor about throat cancer, but they are obviously wrong for Lukashenka would have not been able to speak, and after the surgery his voice would have changed.

The story of someone else giving orders and governing the country on behalf of Lukashenka fits with the fact of destruction of the tent city and dispersal of the demonstration on Saturday because Lukashenka had promised not to touch at least the tents. Then we start asking the question who is actually running the country.

It is also worth mentioning that all workers at presidential administration as well as the state media participate in this mystery. There are two reasons: either the person acting as the president has scared them, or they are intimidated with the fact that Lukashenka is coming back. Obviously there are hopes for his return since otherwise the inauguration would have been cancelled and not just postponed.

However, if something serious has happened to Lukashenka then our country would go into chaos because there is already no prime-minister, low-rank officials would start fighting each other for power, the police and military would not know whose orders to follow, and the opposition would go insane because of such a “gift” since they do not seem to have a plan for this scenario.

By Wolny